Fires, floods and storm surges have caused many Tasman District residents to be evacuated from their homes in recent years. Key transportation networks continue to be impacted by weather events. Freshwater is becoming a scarce resource, as evidenced during the 2019 drought.
Climate change is likely to bring warmer temperatures, more extreme weather patterns and rising sea levels - all of which will have widespread environmental, social, economic and cultural impacts. Issues such as drought, water security and flooding are expected to become more severe, and existing challenges around coastal erosion may be exacerbated. Industries such as agriculture and horticulture may need to adapt to remain profitable in the new climate. Local Government New Zealand estimates that councils in New Zealand are facing an estimated cost of $5-8 billion to replace vital infrastructure lost to climate change over the next half century.
Challenges also bring opportunities. Investment in changes for horticulture, services, management and technology will be required and may drive innovation from our region.
Click here for a bigger version of the graphic [JPG, 2.2 MB].
How are my region's emissions tracking? is an interactive tool published by StatsNZ that shows the industries that contribute to a region’s greenhouse gas emissions, measured in kilotonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents, for the period 2007–2022.
You can also view emissions intensity per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), emissions per capita, and other related statistics for each region.
The sea level is rising around our District and will have some impact on the present coastline and coastal communities.
As water warms it expands. Even if the glaciers and icesheets stay stable there will still be a certain amount of sea level rise. However, we are expecting that with increasing global temperatures there will be further glacial and icesheet retreat in the future. For those glaciers and icesheets on land, the melt will lead to a sea level change.
Historic sea level rise in New Zealand has averaged 1.78mm per year, with the Port Nelson tide gauge recording a slightly lower rate than the national relative average of 1.57mm per year (MfE, 2017). Measured sea levels at Port Nelson have risen approximately 150mm since the early 1940s. Further studies (NIWA 2023) have shown that large parts of the District’s coast is subsiding (known as vertical land movement). Since 2004, relative sea level rise rates (the rise in height of sea level combined with vertical land movement) have been 9 mm/year for Little Kaiteriteri and Tarakohe and 8 mm/year for Port Nelson. As a result, mean sea level at Port Nelson, Little Kaiteriteri and Tarakohe gauges have increased by 140-150mm between 2004-2023.
The rate and magnitude of future sea level rise is uncertain, especially later this century and beyond. Scientists advise that sea levels will continue to rise and that levels are likely to rise at an accelerated rate over time as the earth’s temperature rises, meaning changes could happen sooner than predicted – or there may be changes to emission rates that reduce the rate of warming.
Uncertainty is a key message. What we do know is that rising sea levels will have increasing implications for development and infrastructure in coastal areas along with environmental, cultural and societal effects.
Ex-tropical cyclone Fehi was a significant coastal storm inundation event that effected our district on 1 February 2018. The large storm surge which coincided with a high spring tide and large waves damaged the coastline and flooded roads, reserves and nearby properties and houses. Sea level rise will increase the exposure of our coastal land to these type of events, creating new hazards in areas that have not previously been exposed.
We've been having a community discussion around climate change and sea level rise.
This report expands on the 2015 NIWA climate change report for Tasman District by introducing six additional climate change variables. These variables have been found to give the most accurate results when compared to historical climate and circulation patterns in the New Zealand and southwest Pacific region. The report describes changes that may occur to Tasman’s climate over the next 80 years, and describes the impacts of these changes on agricultural systems.
Download a copy of the report. (pdf 7.4 MB)
Key points are:
In 2015, NIWA released a climate change and variability report for Tasman District Council. The report describes changes which may occur over the coming century in the climate of the Tasman region, and outlines some of the possible impacts of these changes.
Download a copy of the report:
The key points from this report are:
By 2090, the Nelson-Tasman region could expect*:
| Spring | 0.6°C to 2.6°C temperature rise 1% less to 1% more rainfall |
| Summer | 0.6°C to 3.2°C temperature rise No change to 10% more rainfall |
| Autumn | 0.7°C to 3.2°C temperature rise 3% to 7% more rainfall |
| Winter | 0.7°C to 3.1°C temperature rise 4% to 11% more rainfall |
* Projected changes are relative to 1995 levels. The values provided capture the range across all emissions scenarios. They are based on scenario estimates and should not be taken as definitive. For more information, see the full report.
On 7 August 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its Sixth Assessment Report on the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change (AR6 Report).
The report states that human induced climate change is already taking place at an accelerated rate from that observed in AR5, and that the world must act now to make deep cuts in global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to avoid further serious irreversible climate impacts. Some of the key findings in AR6 relating to Aotearoa New Zealand are:
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