Every three years, the Council updates its Growth Model to predict future residential and business development across the Tasman District for the following 30 years. The Growth Model outputs inform the Long Term Plan and Tasman Resource Management Plan, to enable the Council to provide for growth with sufficient infrastructure and zoned land in the right location at the right time.
The Growth Model was updated to inform Tasman's 10-Year Plan 2024-2034. This report was provided as supporting information for Tasman's 10-Year Plan. It outlines when and where Council expects new development, based on the Plan’s updated population growth scenario (using the 2023 population projections) and infrastructure programme. The Growth Model has also been guided by the Nelson Tasman Future Development Strategy 2022-2052. Ensuring we have enough serviced and zoned land for housing and business development is a key priority for the Council.
Tasman’s 10-Year Plan 2024-2034 assumes that Tasman District’s population is likely to grow by almost 7,400 residents over the next ten years, to reach 67,900. Growth is projected to continue in the long term, but at a slower rate, to reach 78,800 by 2054. This is based on the medium scenario of updated population projections.
The Council assumes 4,250 new dwellings will be built over the next ten years, and a further 7,430 dwellings between 2034 and 2054. The Council assumes at least 15 hectares of business land will be developed over the next ten years, and a further 22 hectares between 2034 and 2054, with most of this expected to occur in the urban environment.
Tasman Growth Projections 2024-2054.pdf (pdf 889 KB)
Population projections and demographic trends are key considerations in the Council’s forward planning. For Tasman's Long Term Plan 2024-2034, DOT Consulting has provided Tasman District Council and Nelson City Council with a set of population, household, and dwelling projections to 2058. The District will experience ongoing population growth over the next 30 years but the rate of growth will slow over time. Population ageing is driving changes in age structure.
Council is developing the Long Term Plan 2024-2034 based on these projections. Under the medium scenario, the overall population of Tasman is projected to increase by 7,000 residents between 2024 and 2034, to reach 67,500. The projections will also guide other Council planning for future residential and business development. The Council will also consider other factors, such as holiday house demand, visitor numbers, and major commercial developments, as we develop the Long Term Plan and review the Tasman Resource Management Plan.
DOT Report March 2023 Population Projections Nelson Tasman (pdf 7.7 MB)
