This morning MetService upgraded the forecast for the ranges behind Nelson Tasman from a Yellow Heavy Rain Watch to an Orange Heavy Rain Warning. Also, for the ranges of Tasman West of Motueka, the Orange Heavy Rain Warning now has possibilities of thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening.

The advice we shared yesterday remains the same, with the following additions:  

  • Expect small to moderate floods in the Maitai/Hira areas, the Waimea River, including its tributaries and headwaters of Motueka River catchment. Forecast peak rainfall is this afternoon and evening. A slight chance exists for landslips on the Whangamoas.
  • Camping and/or vehicle activity within riverbeds should be avoided overnight.

Yesterday's advice which remains:

The heavier rain starts in the west of our region early morning and follows shortly after in the ranges behind Nelson and Richmond, running through to the early hours of Friday.

This warning is at the lower end of the scale. The wind direction starts as Northerly and becomes North West. Tides are relatively low and no storm surge is expected.

For the Aorere, Tākaka, Riwaka/Brooklyn catchments, expect moderate flood flows, below that of an annual flood. The rainfall totals and intensities are moderate and not likely to trigger widespread landslips.

In summary, we hold no concerns based on the rainfall forecast, but if flooding consequences are severe for you, as always, take a prudent approach and plan for higher floods than suggested. All forecasts involving rain and floods require an extra margin for safety.

Keep up to date with the latest MetService warnings here(external link).

If you're going to be on the roads during this time, it's a good idea to check the road conditions before travelling. Any relevant roading information can be found on this page.