Local authorities need accurate information about the size, make-up and distribution of the population across the region, now and into the future, to inform planning for infrastructure and local services. This information can also be useful to inform future planning for community organisations and businesses.
Tasman, like the rest of the country, is experiencing relatively high population growth.
As at 30 June 2020, Tasman District has an estimated population of 56,400 people.
Figure 1: Population in Tasman District as at 30 June, from 2000 - 2020.
Stats NZ has more data on population estimates and projections here: StatsNZ
For trend analysis, we use June year population estimates. These are based on Census data but are updated for:
Between Census 2013 and 2018, Tasman’s population grew by 11%.
Table 1: Proportion of Ward Population, by age group, by sex, from the 2018 Census.
For more snapshots of Tasman’s population, go to the StatsNZ page on the Tasman Region: StatsNZ - Tasman Region
Table 2 shows the changing face of Tasman District’s population from Census 2006 to 2018, with the European ethnicity being the dominant ethnicity for the past 3 Censuses. Where a person reported more than one ethnic group, they were counted in each applicable group.
Table 2. Ethnic groups for people in Tasman Region, 2006-2018 Censuses
Take a look at the results of the 2018 New Zealand General Social Survey to see how we stack up against other regions in NZ in terms of self-assessed well-being. Social Well-being - StatsNZ
In 2020, median house prices in Nelson and Tasman continued to increase relatively strongly. Compared with 5 years earlier, median house prices in both regions have increased by around 60%.
The Massey Home Affordability Index showed that Tasman is the second least affordable region in the country and Nelson is the third least affordable, as at 30 June 2020.
Each year Council provides a monitoring report on the housing market. This is available on our website here: Urban Development Reports
Population projections and demographic trends are a key consideration in the Council’s forward planning. For the Long Term Plan 2021-2031, Council have engaged Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd to provide district and ward population and household projections for Tasman District and its five Wards.
Under the updated medium population scenario, Tasman’s population is projected to increase by 7,500 between 2018 and 2028, to reach 61,800. Across the 30 years from 2018 to 2048, Tasman’s population is projected to increase by 20,200 to reach 74,500.
Table 3. Projected numbers for Tasman District Wards
There are already more people aged 65 and older than children aged 0 to 14 years in Tasman. The proportion of Tasman’s population aged 65 years and over is projected to increase from 21% in 2018 to 34% by 2048. Figure 1 shows the expected growth in population by age group.
Figure 2. Historic and projected Tasman population by age group, 2008-2053
By 2038, the percentage of Tasman's population who identify as Māori is projected to reach 12%. Between 2013 and 2038, the number of Asian residents is projected to triple, from 2% to 6%, and the number of Pacific people is projected to double, from 1% to 2%.
For more information, read the Tasman District Population Projections 2018 – 2053 report. Note that the Council adopted a medium growth scenario. Tasman's Growth Model
GDP in Tasman District measured $2,208m in the year to March 2019, up 5.8% from a year earlier. New Zealand's GDP increased by 3.0% over the same period.
A total of 7,026 business units were recorded in Tasman District in 2019, up 1.9% from a year earlier. The number of business units in New Zealand increased by 1.8% over the same period. Growth in the number of business units indicates that we have an environment in which entrepreneurs are prepared to take risks to start new ventures.
As at March 2019, tertiary industries (e.g. retail trade, food and accommodation) make up the largest proportion of GDP (32.6%) in Tasman District.
Table 4. Top Five Broad Industries in Tasman District for contribution to GDP & Employment, 2018-2019
| Biggest Contributer to GDP Growth |
Largest Contributer to Employment |
| Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishing | Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing |
| Manufacturing | Manufacturing |
| Rental, Hiring, and Real Estate Services | Retail Trade |
| Construction | Construction |
| Retail Trade | Accommodation and Food Services |
For the latest information on our region, you can download reports from Business insights - NRDA
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