We have created on online map to visually represent three scenarios for future development. It includes the feedback survey.
We recommend opening in full screen. View the map in full screen(external link)
We wanted to make sure young people in our District have the opportunity to contribute to the future of our communities. So we ran a separate survey for those aged 12 - 24.
Nelson and Tasman are growing fast. We need to determine how we best manage this growth for the long-term benefit of the community and the environment. Managed well, growth can make our two regions better places to live, work and play.
We are asking for your views on three different scenarios for how we grow over the next 30 years. This is also your chance to suggest other places where you think we should allow housing or business to be located.
You can find hard copy versions of the survey in all council offices and libraries.
Growth forecasts vary but if we continue to experience high growth, both Councils will need to find space for up to 12,000 extra homes over the next 30 years – this is on top of the extra residential land we have already planned for. Along with more houses, will come more shops, offices and commercial services.
If high-growth population forecasts eventuate, there will also be more industrial activities taking place in our region. We know that we have industrial land which is not currently being used or could be better used and this should be sufficient to meet future needs. However, to ensure greater choice we have looked at a number of possible new industrial/business areas.
An initial round of public feedback, at the start of 2019, gave us a broad idea of your preferences and priorities.
We have developed three scenarios as examples of how future growth could occur. We want to get your feedback on the areas that have been included (and excluded) from these scenarios, as well as any other options, before preparing a final Future Development Strategy.
Planning where we should grow in the future means we need to make choices and there will be trade offs, no matter what direction we take. How we grow in the future depends on what we value as a community. It is likely that we will need to change the way we accommodate growth. Now we need to hear from you – which scenario or mix of scenarios do you prefer?
Most feedback supported building up existing urban areas rather than building out. But there were a range of views.
From 8 April to 6 May we ran an extensive consultation programme to help us develop the joint Nelson Tasman Future Development Strategy.
There are some important choices and trade-offs to be made as we select the combination of development areas that best meet our communities’ long term needs.
To help work through the options, we have developed three different scenarios:
Each scenario can provide enough housing to meet a high growth population projection (that is, they provide room for at least 12,000 extra dwellings, between 2028 and 2048).
We have identified a range of areas in Nelson and Tasman where growth might be accommodated and then evaluated (at a high level) their relative advantages and disadvantages against environmental, social, economic and cultural criteria.
The possible growth areas have been identified based on previous work, iwi, community and stakeholder feedback. To help guide identification of possible growth areas, we have applied a set of development principles.
New housing developments can take many forms:
Realistically we will need to provide for a mix of building-up existing urban areas (intensification) and building-out around existing settlements (expansion). There may even be the need for new settlements if population growth is high.
Showing these areas does not mean that all of these areas will be need to be developed. Also, the strategy looks out over 30 years, so some areas, if needed, may not be developed for 15 or 20 years.
Under this scenario, the possible development areas have first been selected through two criteria:
Under this scenario, around 40% of future growth is accommodated through intensification and 60% through urban expansion.
Residential intensification could take place in Nelson South, Stoke, Richmond, Motueka, Brightwater and Wakefield. Urban expansion would be possible in places like Kaka Valley, Saxton, Richmond South, Brightwater, and inland of Mapua and Motueka.
The potential sites for Tasman had already been filtered according to sea level rise and coastal inundation and erosion potential and they are situated outside the 2m sea level rise area.
Under this scenario the possible development areas have also been selected through two criteria:
Land south of Richmond, Brightwater, Mapua, Coastal Tasman and Motueka has been excluded under this scenario. Possible development areas at Murchison and Takaka are also not included in this scenario.
Under this option, there is around 50% of growth occurs through intensification and 50% through expansion areas. The intensification areas are similar to the first scenario. Possible urban expansion and new settlement areas include Hira, Kaka Valley, Pigeon Valley, Stringer Road and Seaton Valley.
This scenario provides for a balance between enabling housing supply and avoiding areas subject to sea level rise or land of high productive value.
It retains some of the development areas that were not included in Scenarios 1 and 2 where there are some strategic benefits. These areas provide an:
Under this scenario, if all urban expansion areas were developed, then 30% of growth would occur through intensification and 70% through urban expansion.
The main areas retained under this scenario are:
Initial consultation on the Future Development Strategy signalled the importance of building on existing urban centres. Increasing the proportion of residents living within the city centre supports economic vibrancy, social connectedness and community well-being.
Whilst part of the Nelson City Centre is subject to flooding and (in the longer-term coastal inundation), measures can be taken to reduce the exposure to these risks for residents and businesses.
As an extension of the City Centre, this area could potentially provide for a mix of smaller-scale business activities and apartments, providing for a transition between residential areas and the Centre.
This proposed residential area is on the south-west side of Richmond and features land of relatively high productive value. The area is a mix of smaller titles that are not used for intensive production, and larger sites that are used productively. This area rates well in relation to proximity to existing settlements, low carbon emissions, and feasibility and attractiveness for development. On this basis it is appropriate that the suitability of this site be tested further through public consultation. Richmond has also been recognised in economic models as providing capacity for some of Nelson City’s business demand. Having recently converted 50 hectares of zoned business land to housing areas in the Lower Queen Street area, it is important that we continue to provide for business land demands.
This is a relatively small and constrained area that sits alongside a substantial area that is suitable for further investigation. The site forms a cohesive whole with the surrounding development areas and could be considered for residential development.
The settlement of Motueka faces particular challenges due to sea level rise, flooding hazards and highly productive land. The Mariri hills area, both on the coastal and inland sides, represent an opportunity for Motueka to grow while avoiding those constraints.
Exclusion of sites on the basis of highly productive land means that the more remote and isolated settlements (such as Takaka and Murchison) are left with few development options. Therefore, it is appropriate that growth sites in these locations be included for
There are some high-level principles that we have assumed will be implemented in any new development options.
A range of different intensification options have been considered. Different types of intensification are appropraite in different locations. The intensification typologies that we are considering are:
A range of different urban expansion options have been considered. Different housing densities are appropriate in different locations. The urban expansion typologies that we are considering are:
View the Future Development Strategy project page which has the full background to this work.
The two Councils have done an analysis of population, dwelling and business growth projections for the 30 year period of 2018 to 2048. For the first 10 years (2018 to 2028) a high growth scenario has been assumed, followed by a medium growth projection for the following 20 years thereafter.
Analysis and modelling for Nelson and Tasman Districts indicate that sufficient capacity has been provided to meet the next 10 years' growth. However, the analysis suggests that in the longer term there will be demand for around 6,000 additional dwellings in Tasman District, and around 8,000 dwellings in Nelson City, over the period to 2048. There will also be demand for business and commercial land.
Developing an FDS will provide an opportunity to consider how and where we provide for growth over the next 30 years.
Residential and business growth is important to plan for. Without residential supply, prices go up, young people and skilled workers cannot afford to live here, and the economy suffers from labour shortages.
There are also statutory and legislative requirements on the Councils to plan for, and manage, growth. An important document is the National Policy Statement on Urban Development Capacity which places requirements on the Councils.
However, it is important to manage growth so that development happens in a planned way. This is necessary to avoid hazards, avoid the undesirable effects of ad hoc development, and to ensure it occurs in locations where infrastructure can be provided.
Planning future growth and development always has challenges. All land has some constraints on use, and nowhere is entirely free from the effect of natural hazards. The trick for the FDS will be to take these constraints into account, but also provide for the growth that will occur.
Some of the physical constraints are:
There are also considerations such as an ageing population, the trend towards smaller houses, and the significant benefits of intensification of urban areas.
We will be undertaking a robust assessment of options, but throughout this process we want to know what you think. How do you want to see Nelson and Tasman develop in the future to accommodate the forecast growth? What are our options? Is there anything we should rule in or rule out? Where should we direct our efforts? Do you have any ideas that we may not have thought of?
Some examples to get you thinking: