Growth model

Growth modelling is an important component of our long term planning.

Every three years, the Council updates its Growth Model to predict future residential and business development across the Tasman District for the following 30 years. The Growth Model outputs inform the Long Term Plan and Tasman Resource Management Plan, to enable the Council to provide for growth with sufficient infrastructure and zoned land in the right location at the right time.

Population projections 2019

Population projections and demographic trends are a key consideration in the Council’s forward planning. For the Long Term Plan 2021-2031, Council has engaged Natalie Jackson Demographics Ltd to provide district and ward population and household projections for Tasman District and its five Wards. In February 2020, Council approved the use of the medium scenario of these projections to guide the future demand for residential and business development for 2021-2051. The Council will also consider other factors, such as holiday house demand, visitor numbers, and major commercial developments, as we develop the Long Term Plan and review the Tasman Resource Management Plan.

Under the updated medium population scenario, Tasman’s population is projected to increase by 7,300 between 2021 and 2031, to reach almost 64,000. Across the 30 years from 2021 to 2051, Tasman’s population is projected to increase by 19,300, to reach almost 76,000.

The Motueka, Moutere-Waimea and Richmond Wards are projected to experience the greatest growth in population. The Golden Bay Ward population is projected to peak in the 2030’s and then decline slightly, offsetting some of the growth in 2018-2028. The Lakes-Murchison Ward population is projected to plateau around 2038. These projections reflect each ward’s age structure and its migration trends (net gains/losses) for different age groups.

All age groups are projected to experience growth. However, the highest growth continues to be in the 65+ age groups, whose proportion is projected to increase from 21% in 2018 to 34% in 2053.

Tasman District Population Projections 2018-2053 (pdf, 2 MB)


Settlement reports and maps 2018

Settlement Area Reports provide an overview of the demographics, development options and the projects that Council has included in the Long Term Plan 2018-2028  for our main towns and villages.  

These projects aim to address anticipated growth, improve the services already provided and ensure that existing public assets are maintained and fit for purpose.

View the reports and maps


Growth Model 2017 Summary

This report provides information on the size and location of anticipated development to accommodate population growth in the Tasman District

Growth Model Summary 2017 (pdf, 764 KB)

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